Patriots-Falcons preview: Is TreVeyon Henderson primed for a breakout game? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
FOXBORO — The Patriots are coming off of what might qualify as a best-case scenario kind of win over the Browns. They won handily and yet still made enough in the way of mistakes that Mike Vrabel and his coaching staff would be justified in keeping their players on their toes headed into a Week 9 matchup with the Falcons.
Complacency, Vrabel explained this week, is an every-week opponent.
“That’s what we’re always trying to do,” he said, “is not allow these… good times soften us up mentally and just let things slip that we weren’t doing earlier in the season or the way that we prepared, the things that we want to believe in as a team.
“It’s always a good reminder, especially in this league where anything can happen. We talk about having an identity, and the identity doesn’t care where you play. It doesn’t care what time it is, and it doesn’t care what the score is. You either have it, or you don’t.”
The Patriots are home favorites once again and could come away with their sixth straight victory against Atlanta on Sunday. To get there, further solidifying their place atop the AFC East, they’ll have to contend with an uber-talented running back and a defense whose strength matches up well with that the Patriots offense has done best through the first half of 2025.
Here the key matchups to watch for Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Drake Maye vs. Jeff Ulbrich
It’s not hyperbole to say that Drake Maye is on pace for one of the best deep passing seasons in recent NFL history. His EPA per play and success rate on passes of 10 yards or more down the field ranks higher than any other quarterback’s single-season performance in that category since 1999, per Brady Penn via nflfastR.
Maye is also first in completion percentage on passes of 20 yards or more down the field (76.5), first in rating on those throws (157.5) and first in EPA per dropback on those deep shots (2.28).
The Falcons, however, have done an excellent job of thwarting deep attempts this season under defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. They rank 10th in the NFL in DVOA this season thanks in part to their ability to keep a lid on explosive pass attempts. They are first in EPA allowed per deep pass (-0.63) and third in yards per attempt allowed on deep throws (7.9). They’ve allowed the sixth-fewest deep pass yards per game, according to NextGen Stats (24.9).
“He’s way better than I want him to be,” Ulbrich said of Maye this week. “He feels like a mini Josh Allen, a younger Josh Allen, in a lot of ways. His mobility, his arm, the way he can take the game over in both facets of the game. He’s going to be… He’s a problem.”
Part of what will make this an entertaining matchup is that when the Patriots want to go long, that won’t be the only strength-on-strength battle between these two units.
Ulbrich is fond of cooking up complex blitz packages for quarterbacks to decipher, and his defense has generated the sixth-best EPA per blitz mark in the league, according to Sumer Sports. Meanwhile, the Maye-led Patriots have torched blitzes to the tune of the second-best EPA per play mark in the NFL.
Where the Patriots have a decided advantage in the passing game? The middle of the field. Maye’s ability to layer the football has made the Patriots offense the third-most efficient passing offense between the numbers (0.66 EPA per attempt).
Ulbrich’s defense, which is now moving forward without injured linebacker Divine Deablo, ranks 28th in defending that portion of the field (0.50 EPA per attempt).
Matchup that will make your Sunday
TreVeyon Henderson vs. Falcons run defense
Rhamondre Stevenson is dealing with a toe injury and missed the first two practices of the week for the Patriots. If ever there was an opportunity (and a matchup) for TreVeyon Henderson to “break out,” it would be Sunday.
Per Sumer Sports, the Falcons rank 27th in the NFL in stopping inside runs and 24th in stopping runs outside the tackles. They rank 30th in yards after contact allowed per rush (3.53), they’re 22nd in yards allowed per rush (4.6), and they’re 28th in “stuff percentage,” which tracks how frequently defenses stop rushing attempts for no gain or a loss of yardage (per NextGen Stats).
The Patriots recently promoted practice-squad back Terrell Jennings, who could end up being used as the between-the-tackles back should the Patriots want to continue to use Henderson as a weapon to attack the edges of the opponent’s defense as he did against Cleveland in Week 8.
No matter how the reps are split, Henderson should see his share of work. He picked up a career-high 75 yards on 10 carries against the Browns, losing a fumble in the fourth quarter.
Matchup that will surprise you
Patriots tackling vs. Bijan Robinson
If you’re wondering just how closely the Patriots will be paying attention to Falcons running back Bijan Robinson on Sunday, look no further than the Gillette Stadium practice fields this week, where three different practice-squad running backs all donned Robinson’s No. 7 on their jerseys.
Of course, there are few backs in the league who can replicate what Robinson brings to the table. But Vrabel likely wanted to keep all of his Robinson impersonators fresh throughout the course of practice to provide his defense the best look possible.
“I think if there’s any crack, he’s going to test our edge,” Vrabel said of Robinson this week. “He’s going to test our wall, and he’s going to test everything we do about having guys swarming to the football. There have been some good defenses that he’s been able to gain yards against.
“In their three victories, they averaged 186 yards a game on the ground, and it’s not like they’re manufacturing a lot. Not a lot of those are the quarterback; it’s Bijan and [Tyler] Allgeier.”
The Patriots, though, have been one of the best run defenses in football. They rank second in the league, allowing 3.5 yards per attempt. Their “stuff rate” is third-best in the NFL at 20.8 percent. They haven’t allowed a single back to rush for 50 yards in a game this season, joining only the 2020 Buccaneers and Vrabel’s Titans in 2021 as one of three teams to hold all opposing backs to fewer than 50 yards for eight consecutive games.
Robinson provides a tough test. He averages 5.2 yards per carry (seventh in the NFL) and 4.4 yards after contact per attempt (first). But what the Patriots have done to this point in the season suggests they might be able to slow him down.
Matchup that could ruin your Sunday
Patriots defense vs. Falcons tight ends
The headliner at tight end for the Falcons is Kyle Pitts, who was the No. 4 overall selection in 2021. He’s been effective enough this season, reeling in 39 passes for 344 yards and a touchdown. But he’s athletic enough to provide the Patriots a scare if they give him space. He’s a key part of their overall offensive identity, as the Falcons like to roll with two tight ends as much as just about any team in football.
Their 12-personnel usage ranks second in the league, per Sumer Sports (43.7 percent), featuring mostly Pitts and blocking specialist Charlie Woerner. The Falcons are very rarely under center (4.9 percent of snaps), opting for “Pistol” looks instead, and they’re last in the league in how frequently they attack with play-action attempts (15.4 percent).
Even without that level of deception as part of their weekly plan, though, they turn to their multi-tight end packages on a regular basis and have been relatively efficient (12th in EPA per play). Woerner isn’t a threat in the passing game (one target), but the Patriots have had issues against “12” over the course of the year, allowing 0.17 EPA per play against those looks, which ranks them 28th in the NFL.
How Vrabel and de facto defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr opt to match Pitts will be one of the key decisions they make this week as they look to keep their winning streak alive.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Falcons 21
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