NFL Week 18 picks: 49ers take NFC's No. 1 seed; Steelers win AFC North

 (Tim Hubbard / Los Angeles Times)

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 18 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 9-7 (.563) record. Through the first 17 weeks of the season, he is 164-92 (.641).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 17 would have been 4-12 (.333). For the season, his record against the spread is 120-136 (.469).

All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area.

Panthers (8-8) at Buccaneers (7-9)

Saturday, 1:30 p.m. TV: ABC, ESPN.

Line: Buccaneers by 3. O/U: 44½.

This was a three-point win by the Panthers when these teams met two weeks ago and figures to be just about that close in the rematch. Hard to trust Tampa Bay, which has lost seven of its last eight games. This showdown comes down to the wire and Carolina wins with a field goal to clinch the NFC South title.

Pick: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 21

Seahawks (13-3) at 49ers (12-4)

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy passes against the Chicago Bears on Dec. 28. (Scot Tucker / Associated Press)

Saturday, 5 p.m. TV: ABC, ESPN.

Line: Seahawks by 1½. O/U: 49½.

As hot as Seattle is, San Francisco is surging and has the experience and home crowd at its back. It will be a really physical game and the winner claims the conference title. Seattle has lost seven of eight to the 49ers with the only win being last season and by three points.

Pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 27

Packers (9-6-1) at Vikings (8-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Vikings by 5½. O/U: 36½.

The Packers are locked in as the No. 7 seed, and the Vikings are playing for pride. Have to believe with all the injuries his team has dealt with, Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur is going to make preserving health a priority. So no matter what happens at quarterback, I like the Vikings winning at home.

Pick: Vikings 21, Packers 16

Colts (8-8) at Texans (11-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Texans by 10½. O/U: 39½.

The Philip Rivers experiment was so much fun, but now it’s back to planning for the future with Riley Leonard. Division crown is a longshot for Texans, but they can still improve their seeding.

Pick: Texans 24, Colts 10

Titans (3-13) at Jaguars (12-4)

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence passes against the Indianapolis Colts on Dec. 28. (Zach Bolinger / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Jaguars by 11½. O/U: 47½.

The Titans were on the wrong end of a laugher when these teams met at the end of last month. Now they’re playing for pride whereas the Jaguars have every incentive to keep their foot on the gas. The Jaguars have won seven in a row, averaging 30 points during that streak.

Pick: Jaguars 31, Titans 17

Saints (6-10) at Falcons (7-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Falcons by 3. O/U: 43½.

Here are a couple teams who are out of the playoff race but have assembled winning streaks. The Falcons handled the Saints pretty easily in New Orleans last month and should win a closer game at home.

Pick: Falcons 24, Saints 20

Cowboys (7-8-1) at Giants (3-13)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Cowboys by 4½. O/U: 52½.

It’s a small consolation but the Cowboys are determined to finish with a .500 record, so they’re incentivized. Pride and a pass rush will keep the three-win Giants in this one. Figures to be reasonably high-scoring, although that could be tempered by a bitter-cold breeze.

Pick: Cowboys 28, Giants 24

Browns (4-12) at Bengals (6-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Bengals by 7½. O/U: 44½.

Bengals coach Zac Taylor says it’s “an absolute nightmare” for his team to face Myles Garrett, and that might be so, but Cincinnati gets the edge in this one. Joe Burrow over Shedeur Sanders. The Bengals have six wins and the Browns have four. Do you still call that state bragging rights?

Pick: Bengals 23, Browns 13

Cardinals (3-13) at Rams (11-5)

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford passes against the Seattle Seahawks on No. 16. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Fox.

Line: Rams by 7½. O/U: 45½.

Certainly not a meaningless game for the Rams. They need to gather some momentum heading into the postseason, because at the moment they’re rolling backward. The Cardinals have surrendered an average of 37 points in the past four games (all losses). Rams roll, but what does it portend?

Pick: Rams 38, Cardinals 13

Chargers (11-5) at Broncos (13-3)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: CBS.

Line: Broncos by 11½. O/U: 36½.

The Chargers are resting Justin Herbert and other starters, so this is about getting out of Denver without injuries. Trey Lance has accounted for himself well in those rare chances he gets, but he’ll be under heavy pressure from that Broncos pass rush. These teams keep it on the ground to make it a quick one.

Pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 18

Lions (8-8) at Bears (11-5)

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams scrambles against the San Francisco 49ers on Dec. 28. (Lachlan Cunningham / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Bears by 2½. O/U: 49½.

The Bears need to recapture some of their swagger after losing at San Francisco, and the Lions are leaking confidence by the week. Six turnovers? Really? The Lions are going to play hard for Dan Campbell, but disdain for a division rival will only take them so far.

Pick: Bears 28, Lions 23

Jets (3-13) at Bills (11-5)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Bills by 7½. O/U: 38½.

The Bills can improve their playoff seeding with a win, and the Jets have packed it in for the season. Buffalo needs to wash away the foul taste of that one-point loss to Philadelphia, plus the Bills want to turn off the lights at Highmark Stadium in style. Should be pretty lopsided.

Pick: Bills 31, Jets 10

Chiefs (6-10) at Raiders (2-14)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Chiefs by 5½. O/U: 36½.

Talk about coming full circle. This will feel like an exhibition game. Better buy a program so you can figure out who’s on the field. The Chiefs have a better roster, and they feed the ball at Travis Kelce early and often. Disappointing seasons for a pair of future Hall of Fame coaches.

Pick: Chiefs 17, Raiders 9

Dolphins (7-9) at Patriots (13-3)

New England Patriots coach Mike Vrabel walks on the sideline during a win over the New York Jets on Dec. 28. (Vera Nieuwenhuis / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Patriots by 10½. O/U: 45½.

The No. 1 seed is within reach for the Patriots. The Dolphins are playing for pride and individual contract incentives. Barring a bizarre twist, this one is pretty straight-forward. Mike Vrabel has his New England players ready to enter the playoffs on a roll — and in the frosty cold.

Pick: Patriots 35, Dolphins 12

Commanders (4-12) at Eagles (11-5)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Eagles by 7. O/U: 41½.

The Eagles and Bears kick off at the same time, so Philadelphia will have to play hard in case it can move up for that No. 2 seed. Washington put up something of a fight when these teams met two weeks ago. Philadelphia is prone to offensive lapses, though, so this might not be a blowout.

Pick: Eagles 26, Commanders 20

Ravens (8-8) at Steelers (9-7)

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers passes against the Cleveland Browns on Dec. 28. (Sue Ogrocki / Associated Press)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: NBC, Peacock.

Line: Ravens by 3½. O/U: 41½.

It’s winner-take-all in the AFC North. Judging by their performances last week, the Ravens should win going away. But that’s not how this rivalry works. These games are almost always super close, and Pittsburgh rarely loses at home to Baltimore. Aaron Rodgers comes through.

Pick: Steelers 23, Ravens 21

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Why Jordan Mailata is confident Eagles' offense will contribute in playoffs

Why Jordan Mailata is confident Eagles' offense will contribute in playoffs originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Because the Eagles are resting some key starters for this Week 18 game against the Commanders, their starting offense finished its regular season on a sour note with an ugly second half against the Bills in a win.

Despite that, left tackle Jordan Mailata is still confident. In fact, Mailata on Wednesday said their confidence is “through the roof.”

Why is the confidence high?

“The guys we have,” Mailata explained. “I think we’ve been here before. We’ve been doubted before. I think we’ve had these same questions heading into last year. And so, for us, we welcome that challenge. It’s not like we’re just pushing it under the carpet. We’re doing everything we can to get this run game going, to get this play-action game going to help and give our defense a rest. 

“But we’ve been here before. We’ve been doubted and every time we’ve proven them wrong. That’s why I have confidence. That’s why everyone else does as well.”

Mailata is right that there were definitely some questions about the Eagles’ offense entering the 2024 playoffs but those questions were about one element of the offense. The Eagles’ passing offense was struggling deep into the 2024 season but they did have a 2,000-yard rusher last season.

This year, the Eagles are entering Week 18 as the NFL’s 24th-ranked offense in yards, 19th in points and 12th in EPA/play. No matter how you slice it, this is an underperforming offense, especially relative to expectations.

The good news for the Eagles is that their defense has been incredible recently. And the offensive players definitely appreciate it.

“I think one thing I can and 100% know and I can get behind is the energy of our defense,” Mailata said. “If I look back through this whole year, it’s been the most consistent thing this year. And it’s picked us up in games when we weren’t doing anything and it’s helped start us hot in games. They’ve been the most consistent thing.”

The Eagles’ defense has gotten better and better as the season has gone on. Since their Week 9 bye week, the Eagles have the No. 1 defense in points allowed, giving up just 14.5 per game. Since the bye week, the Eagles have somehow won games in which they scored 10, 16 and 13 points.

But let’s face it: The Eagles’ offense just isn’t living up to its end of the deal right now.

“All we want to do is contribute to the games,” Mailata said. “And it hurts us when we don’t contribute. When we suck, that hurts. And we know it too. Us on the sideline, we’re all problem-solving, trying to figure out how to contribute to this win. That’s why I feel like it is a great opportunity for us to learn from our mistakes but also learn that this is football. This is going to happen. The defense is going to have our back. That’s football, in my eyes. 

“Now heading into the playoffs, our goal, my goal at least, is to help contribute. Stay on the field and contribute to win because I think if we can play total football and complete football, I think everyone would have a great playoff run.”

There’s no question the Eagles have a talented offense but it’s also clear this offense hasn’t maximized its potential all season, save for a few fleeting moments.

It’s possible the Eagles can win in the playoffs playing the brand of football we’ve seen this year — with an elite defense winning tight games. But it would really help if the offense could get it going just a little bit more.

“I think anything beyond what we’ve done becomes not important,” Jalen Hurts said. “It’s about what we do with the opportunities that we have. I’m excited about this opportunity this week to improve and ultimately everything we have in front of us.”

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Is there any reason to believe Eagles' offense can find itself in postseason?

Is there any reason to believe Eagles' offense can find itself in postseason? originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Can the Eagles’ offense magically figure things out and become productive, efficient and competent in the postseason after sputtering all year?

I don’t see how.

I don’t see how this offense is going to magically figure things out against the kind of teams you face in the postseason.

I don’t see how you can expect to just flip a switch and suddenly start moving the ball and finishing drives and scoring points against top defenses.

I don’t see how Kevin Patullo can magically morph into the sort of elite play caller you need to win playoff games.

Every conversation about the Eagles right now includes some form of the phrase, “They’re only going to go as far as the defense can take them.”

And there’s no other way to look at it. The Eagles’ only chance at a deep playoff run is if Vic Fangio’s unit continues playing otherworldly football and shutting teams down on a regular basis. And it’s not impossible. For only the third time since 1939, the Eagles won three games this year when the offense managed 16 or fewer points.

And I see no reason the defense won’t keep playing at this level. They’re on fire right now. But it’s asking an awful lot of the defense to just keep carrying this team on its back. Honestly, it’s asking too much. Because this offense has been so consistently terrible that even this defense can’t overcome their ineptitude.

The Eagles have faced six teams this year that currently have a winning record, averaging 16.7 points and 293 net yards and converting 32 percent on third down in those six games.

They scored 20 offensive points just once against those teams – 26 vs. the Rams in their comeback win back in Week 3. Since then, 15 vs. the Broncos, 10 vs. the Packers, 15 vs. the Bears, 19 vs. the Chargers, 13 vs. the Bills.

Sure, the offense looked functional against the Raiders, Commanders and Giants. You don’t get to play the Raiders, Commanders and Giants in the playoffs.

All year, we’ve kept saying, with this kind of talent, the offense has to get going. With Jalen and A.J. and DeVonta and Dallas and Saquon and that offensive line? How could it not? They’re loaded with talent on that side of the ball.

But we’re still waiting. And week after week we get the same tired explanations about struggling on first down, falling behind the sticks, and penalties and putting the players in better position to make plays.

And now we’re supposed to believe that after four months of inefficiency and inadequacy the Eagles’ offense is going to suddenly figure things out just because it’s the playoffs?

It doesn’t work that way.

On Wednesday, Nick Sirianni was asked if he believes the offense can kick into gear in the postseason after such a dismal regular season. He said he does believe it can happen and he used last year as an example, when the Eagles were at their best in the postseason.

But the offense last year averaged 24.6 points per game during the regular season against playoff-bound teams before going nuts in the playoffs, as opposed to 16.7 points this year vs. playoff teams. That’s a difference of a touchdown per game. Not quite the same. That was a good offense that took off in the postseason. This is a terrible offense.

I do have faith in this defense to keep the Eagles in every game. They’re playing out of their minds and getting better each week, and they’ll go into the playoffs having allowed an NFL-low 14.5 points per game since Week 9.

But there’s no margin for error right now. The defense is going into every game against good teams knowing that they have to be almost perfect to make up for an offense that we just saw gain 16 yards after halftime in Buffalo.

The offense hasn’t gotten better, hasn’t grown, hasn’t progressed. It’s actually worse now than the first few weeks of the season. They’ve tried week after week to fix it and they’ve failed. So how can we expect them to miraculously fix it now, 18 weeks into the season?

You can get away with elite defense and hapless offense against the Commanders or Raiders or Giants. Not against the teams they could face in the postseason.

Since 1961, the Eagles are 2-18 in the postseason when they score fewer than 20 points, with the wins coming in the conference semifinal round against the Falcons in 2017 – think Jalen Mills on Julio Jones on the final play – and the wild-card game Chicago in 2018 – think Double Doink.

So, yeah, maybe they can steal a 17-13 wild-card win and conceivably a 15-12 squeaker in the second round. But the only goal for this team all year has been to get back to the Super Bowl and win another one.

And with this offense, this hapless, plodding, bumbling offense, that’s just not going to happen.

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George Kittle says he "absolutely" expects to play Saturday vs. Seahawks

San Francisco tight end George Kittle says he won't miss Saturday's season finale against the Seahawks, with the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs on the line.

Asked if he expects to play on Saturday, Kittle said, "Absolutely."

Kittle missed last week's game with an ankle injury but said he's feeling “Fabulous" this week.

“Great position for Saturday night to clinch a one seed. So just with that, I'm doing fantastic," Kittle said.

The 49ers' offense played very well in beating the Bears without Kittle, and Kittle said he's proud to be part of a team that has had players step up all season when other players went out with injuries.

"Any time you're in position to secure a one seed, that means you're playing football at a really high level," Kittle said. "This team just keeps going."

And Kittle keeps going, confident that he can do what the 49ers have done all season: Shake off an injury and keep going.

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Vic Fangio notes: Thoughts on defense, Jalen Carter and more

Vic Fangio notes: Thoughts on defense, Jalen Carter and more originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Vic Fangio’s defense put together another masterpiece on Sunday in Buffalo.

That unit is playing at an elite level right now.

The Eagles gave up just 12 points to the Buffalo Bills and reigning MVP Josh Allen in Week 17 and haven’t given up more than 24 points in a game since Week 6. Since the bye week, the Eagles have the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense, giving up an average of just 14.5 points per game.

“I think we’ve grown from week-to-week, which is what you want,” Fangio said on Tuesday. “Particularly if you have a bunch of young guys, which we still do. We’re in the stage of guys can get better and better and better. Even our veteran-type players, I mean outside of [Brandon Graham] I would guess you would say they’re still in the growing stage. 

“They’ve done that and that always makes you happy. We’ve kind of found our niche the way we like to play, which is something you’re always looking for as a coach. The guys have been fun to coach.”

There was a fair expectation that the Eagles’ defense would take a step back in 2025 after winning Super Bowl LIX. After all, they lost key players from that team like Milton Williams, Josh Sweat, Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. But the Eagles are about to enter the playoffs again with what appears to be a championship-level group.

Fangio was asked if this group reminds him of the defense that won a Super Bowl last year.

“A little bit,” Fangio said. “We just have a lot of new names this year instead of the guys that were here last year. But it does a little bit, certainly.”

There’s a lot of youth on this defense and players have grown throughout the season. Fangio on Tuesday was asked if there’s a benefit to coaching a bunch of young players.

“If they’re good players,” Fangio said. “I like a lot of good players. They make me look smart.”

A strong return

Defensive tackle Jalen Carter returned to the field on Sunday and looked like he was back to his dominant form. Carter missed the previous three games after getting shots in both shoulders a month ago.

“I thought he played well,” Fangio said. “I really didn’t know how he would play because he missed three games, I believe, and didn’t practice until this past week during that time. I thought he played well, I think he’s off to a good start and hopefully he’ll build on that and play good down the stretch here and into the playoffs.”

Against the Bills, Carter had two pressures, a sack, a batted pass and a huge blocked PAT try. After the game, Carter seemed pleased by how his shoulder held up in that game.

If Carter can play at that level in the playoffs, it’ll be a huge boost for this already-suffocating defense.

First start in two months

Nakobe Dean missed the Eagles’ Week 17 game with a hamstring injury, which allowed rookie Jihaad Campbell to get his first start since Week 8 on Oct. 26.

The rookie played pretty well.

“Yeah, I thought he did good,” Fangio said. “Obviously, there’s plays he’d like to have back and do over, but we don’t get mulligans. But I do think it will help him moving forward if he has to play again this week for Nakobe and then if he has to be called upon in the playoff game.”

Campbell, 21, handled losing his starting job earlier this season well and clearly stayed ready. Against the Bills, he had 7 tackles and a fumble recovery that he had to run down a long way. Campbell should get his second straight start in Week 18.

Stunting on ‘em

The Eagles sacked Josh Allen five times on Sunday, which is the second-most sacks the Bills have given up in a game all season. This defensive line is cooking right now.

One of their five sacks came on a beautiful T-E stunt executed by Moro Ojomo and Jalyx Hunt, who came free.

Fangio on Tuesday said there are some concrete rules for his defensive linemen with stunts and then explained a little bit about what dictates when they run those stunts.

“The front dictates it,” Fangio said. “Some of those stunts, I call. Some of them, based upon what front I call, they have the freedom to run a stunt under the guidelines we give them.”

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Jerry Jones: We'll figure out what we want to change on defense pronto

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones suggested last week that it might not take him long to make a decision about defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus' future with the team and he sounded ready to move quickly again on Tuesday,

During an appearance on 105.3 The Fan, Jones promised that "we will get better on defense" heading into the 2026 season and said that the process of moving in that direction will start by acknowledging there are multiple reasons why the unit failed to reach expectations. Jones cited a secondary that dealt with injuries heading into the season and throughout the year as an area he thought the team would have more success.

"Make no mistake about it, everybody had their finger in what we did out there defensively. Everybody," Jones said, via the team's website. "And so it's not just a one man blame at all, and I say that because therein lies what you got to sit down and figure out if what, if anything, you want to change. We'll get to that pronto . . . It is rare when you have one coach or one player that is the cause or the solution to the problem. And that's the main thing I'd like to emphasize. We're trying to solve the problem."

Jones is correct that there's blame to go around, but it starts at the top and recent chatter about Cowboys interest in Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores only underscores that likelihood that Eberflus' tenure with the Cowboys will be one and done. Changes with personnel started with cornerback Trevon Diggs' departure and the rest of them will flow from whatever the new guy in charge wants to see on that side of the ball.

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Ravens-Steelers Sunday night will be the 40th John Harbaugh vs. Mike Tomlin game

The 2025 NFL season will come to an end on Sunday night with the Ravens at the Steelers, with the AFC North on the line between two head coaches who will be facing each other for the 40th time.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin have faced each other 39 times in their careers, the second-most for any coaching matchup in NFL history and the most for any pair of living coaches.

Only George Halas and Curly Lambeau, who coached against each other 49 times between 1921 and 1953, faced each other more. Halas coached the Bears, while Lambeau coached the Packers for 29 seasons, the Chicago Cardinals for two seasons and Washington for two seasons.

Tomlin became the Steelers’ head coach in 2007 and Harbaugh became the Ravens’ head coach in 2008, and they’ve coached against each other twice every regular season and four times in the playoffs since then. The two of them have had remarkable job security, although there’s been talk this season that their job security could be faltering, and this could be their last season coaching against each other.

Through 38 games, Tomlin is 22-17 against Harbaugh. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites on Sunday at Pittsburgh.

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