Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 5 of the NFL season.
All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last week, Farmer posted an 11-5 (.688) record. Through the first three weeks of the season, he is 37-27 (.578).
Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 4 would have been 9-7 (.563). For the season, his record against the spread is 25-39 (.391).
All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area. The Chiefs and Panthers do not play this week.
Buccaneers (0-4) at Cowboys (2-2)
Tonight, 5:15 p.m. TV: Prime Video.
Line: Cowboys by 8½. O/U: 47½.
Baker Mayfield is hurt and unlikely to play, leaving undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at quarterback. Dallas’ offense is rolling after a big win, two weeks after nearly beating Baltimore. The Cowboys have scored 31 or more in three straight games.
Pick: Cowboys 28, Buccaneers 13
Eagles (2-2) vs. Jaguars (3-1)
Sunday, 6:30 a.m. TV: NFL Network.
Line: Jaguars by 7. O/U: 41½.
Jacksonville has been rolling and has outscored opponents, 104-53. Philadelphia’s two wins have been by a combined six points over teams that are a combined 1-7. London is a second home for Jaguars.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Eagles 23
Bears (3-1) at Packers (2-2)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Bears by 2½. O/U: 45½.
Green Bay barely beat a Tampa Bay team playing its backup quarterback, 17-14. No matter who’s at quarterback, Chicago is running the ball and forcing turnovers the way it did last season when it led the league in that category.
Pick: Bears 30, Packers 20
Read more:'Excessive' suspensions of two NFL officials to be challenged by referees union
Texans (0-4) at Titans (0-4)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Texans by 7. O/U: 37½.
If Houston is ever going to get off the schneid, it’s now. C.J. Stroud threw for more than 300 yards and Nico Collins caught two touchdown passes in a close loss last week. The Texans have lost three games by five points or fewer. Tennessee has scored 55 points all season.
Pick: Texans 27, Titans 17
Bengals (2-2) at Dolphins (0-4)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Bengals by 7½. O/U: 42½.
Cincinnati bounces back after losing consecutive games by a combined eight points. Its offense is too much for a bad Miami team, even without Ja’Marr Chase. The Dolphins have yet to score more than 13 points in a game.
Pick: Bengals 31, Dolphins 20
Raiders (3-1) at Patriots (2-2)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Patriots by 3½. O/U: 45½.
Las Vegas is for real and it has scored at least 26 in every game and took Kansas City to the wire. But New England showed something last week in knocking off Buffalo, and it makes a big difference when Drake Maye doesn’t turn it over. Field-goal-fest.
Pick: Patriots 26, Raiders 20
Vikings (4-0) at Saints (1-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Vikings by 1½. O/U: 42½.
Unbeaten Minnesota keeps finding ways to win. New Orleans can throw it, but gave up 45 to Atlanta on Monday night and now gets Brian Flores’ defense on a short week. Expect turnovers in this one.
Pick: Vikings 24, Saints 20
Browns (3-1) at Jets (1-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Jets by 1½. O/U: 40½.
Cleveland is gaining confidence after winning three consecutive close games with strong fourth quarters. The defense is good again, and the offense isn’t turning it over. New York is playing better but isn’t there yet.
Pick: Browns 27, Jets 21
Colts (2-2) at Steelers (2-2)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Steelers by 2½. O/U: 44½.
It’s hard to know which version of either team shows up. Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses. Indianapolis is coming off its strongest performance of the season, but it’s a challenge to go from a London game to Pittsburgh with no bye.
Pick: Steelers 23, Colts 20
Giants (3-1) at Commanders (1-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Commanders by 3½. O/U: 43½.
New York is 2-0 with Jameis Winston starting. The Giants are running the ball, playing good defense and just hung 36 on Arizona. Jayden Daniels might be back for Washington, but how will he be with that elbow injury?
Pick: Giants 28, Commanders 23
Broncos (2-2) at Chargers (0-4)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: CBS.
Line: Broncos by 3½. O/U: 42½.
This is a bad time for the Chargers to see Denver. Their offense is still struggling, Justin Herbert took a beating at Seattle, and here comes that Broncos pass rush. With the exception of last week, Denver’s offense has scored on good defenses.
Pick: Broncos 24, Chargers 17
Lions (2-2) at Cardinals (1-3)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Lions by 5½. O/U: 53½.
Detroit’s defense is a problem, especially the secondary, and the Lions are surrendering almost 32 points per game. Arizona will score and hang around. The Cardinals just can’t match the Lions’ offense.
Pick: Lions 31, Cardinals 27
Read more:Sean McVay says he addressed Rams assistant coaches' behavior toward Eagles fans. 'We’ll be better'
49ers (4-0) at Seahawks (3-1)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Seahawks by 3. O/U: 47½.
Brock Purdy is on fire and Kyle Shanahan is dialing it up. Seattle is throwing it all over the field but is one-dimensional. The Seahawks are missing Zach Charbonnet. Division game, so this figures to be close.
Pick: 49ers 27, Seahawks 23
Ravens (3-1) at Falcons (2-2)
Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: NBC.
Line: Falcons by 3. O/U: 43½.
Atlanta’s offense opened up when Michael Penix Jr. returned, and Bijan Robinson is hard to stop. Atlanta has scored a combined 80 in past two games. The Falcons are rushing the passer. Lamar Jackson left last week in a walking boot.
Pick: Falcons 30, Ravens 24
Bills (3-1) at Rams (2-2)
Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: ABC/ESPN.
Line: Rams by 3. O/U: 54½.
Getting Puka Nacua back was huge, and Kyren Williams and the defense played phenomenal in the comeback win at Philadelphia. Josh Allen is elite, but the Bills aren’t impervious to problems — check out the Chargers game.
Pick: Rams 27, Bills 23
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
from https://ift.tt/j1vqNIX
No comments:
Post a Comment